Week 17 Spread Picks
Week 17 is always a tough week to pick. It’s hard to gauge how teams will respond when faced with “meaningless” games. But I did manage to find 5 games I like ATS and locked in my bets.
NYG +3 v. DAL (4 Units)
I highlighted this game here: https://sharpclarkenfl.medium.com/giants-cowboys-week-17-477e109f7ecc. Unfortunately the 3 point spread has dropped to 1.5. I still like the Giants but I’d wait to see if it goes back to 3, and I would put fewer units on if it remains under 3.
TEN -7.5 @ HOU (2 Units)
The Titans are a team that looks drastically better when it controls the offensive line of scrimmage and builds a lead. I expect them to score touchdowns on essentially every drive, putting a lot of pressure on the Texans to keep up. There’s always backdoor potential for a good QB getting over a touchdown, but I give the edge to the superior coach in a must-win game to put it out of reach.
GB -5.5 @ CHI (2 Units)
This spread is simply too low. The Packers are a far superior team and Rodgers typically does not take his foot off the gas, especially in divisional games. The Packers can lock up the bye and home field with a win, so they’ll be plenty motivated. The Pack will score with ease, and Trubisky is too inconsistent to keep up.
Friday update: David Bakhtiari tore his ACL in practice yesterday. This is a big deal, and very concerning for the Packers going against a decent defensive line. The line has dropped to -4.5 accordingly. My bet is locked in, and I’d still take the Packers there, but if nightmares of what happened against Tampa Bay with Bakhtiari injured scare you away, I get it.
LAR +3.5 v. ARI (2 Units) (Friday: make it 5 Units)
It feels ugly to put multiple units on a quarterback who has never played an NFL snap. I get it. But the Rams have been hiding Goff’s weaknesses all year. They win because they have a stifling defense and a coach that gets the most out of his offensive pieces. I don’t see a major downgrade. And this play is mostly a bet against the Cardinals, who have struggled against good defensive schemes all year and I don’t see that changing here. Add to that the chance that Murray gets re-injured, and we get incredible value with the home dog.
Friday update: I’m adding 3 units to this play to make it 5 units. All things equal, the Rams are a vastly superior team to the Cardinals. Their defense is one of the best in the league, and Kyler Murray simply isn’t good enough to combat the pressure the Rams can bring, particularly with Ramsey on Hopkins. The Cardinals will struggle to run successfully and Murray’s behind-the-line passing offense will not get it done. Meanwhile, John Wolford may bring mobility and a spark that Goff lacks and actually help this offense succeed. I think the Rams win outright.
JAC +14 @ IND (1 Unit)
The Colts have to be devastated after blowing a 17 point lead against the Steelers, putting them in a position where they no longer ensure a playoff spot with a win. I do think they will be ready for this game, and should win, but it’s going to be tough to bring the type of dominance it takes to cover such a big number. The Jaguars are fairly underrated, and I think if they don’t keep it within a score they have a good chance at a backdoor.
Bonus pick Saturday: BAL -12.5 @ CIN
I’ve been hesitant to pull the trigger on this one because it’s a 12.5 point road favorite and the Bengals are underrated, but I’m locking it in. This one is a simple style and matchup play. When the Ravens can run, they don’t stop scoring.
Good luck!
