Giants-Cowboys Week 17
I don’t like a lot of games this week, but one game I’m eyeing is DAL @ NYG. In an elimination game for both teams, the winner will win the division if Washington loses to Philly later, so both teams will be fully motivated. The teams are heading in the wrong direction, with the Giants on a 3 game losing streak and the Cowboys on a 3 game winning streak. But recency bias has given us a ton of value with the better team at home.
Giants Offense: I don’t love that Daniel Jones has been struggling with injuries that have reduced his mobility. But he came out of the Ravens game okay, and I’m hoping another week will be enough for him to fully recover. New York’s offense has been drastically better when they can establish the run, and the Cowboys’ run defense is one of the worst in the league. I think they will have rushing success, setting up Daniel Jones for easier completions to his receivers. I project a fairly neutral line matchup, so hopefully Jones doesn’t turn the ball over. If he doesn’t, I expect long drives and enough big plays to put up 23–27 points.
Cowboys Offense: This is the angle in this game. The Cowboys have relied on big plays to build leads recently, particularly turnovers against San Francisco and taking advantage of broken coverages against Philadelphia. But they simply haven’t been the type of offense that methodically moves down the field, especially against good defensive fronts. The Giants, meanwhile, scheme specifically on defense to take away big plays. The Cowboys are going to struggle for offensive consistency here, and I expect more field goals than touchdowns.
Prediction: In a tough-fought, slow-moving game, I think this one comes down to the wire, with the Giants protecting a lead in the 4th quarter. I think it’s very unlikely that the Cowboys build a lead and bury the Giants, barring injuries, so I love getting the field goal with the home dog New York Football Giants. I’m opting for the points over the money line because the Giants have already played 4 games this season within 2 points, and we could see a very short Cowboys win if the score gets off-schedule.
NYG+3 for 4 units.