NFL Divisional Round Picks
It’s been a really fun (and successful) NFL season so I’m sad to see that we only have 7 games remaining. Given the Covid situation though, I’m just grateful we made it. I’m going to try to finish the playoffs strong, but when there are fewer games it can be harder to find sharp angles. The advantage gained from watching every snap in the regular season is not as strong when everyone is watching all the playoff games. Still, I like the slate this week and we are going to keep on rolling. Here we go.
BUF -2.5 v. BAL (6 Units)
Saturday Edit: Increased from 5 to 6 Units!
This is my strongest play on the slate this week, as you can see in my Spotlight here: https://sharpclarkenfl.medium.com/divisional-round-spotlight-buf-2-5-v-bal-b5b05f26f33a. The line is starting to creep back towards -3 so make sure you lock it in before you lose the -2.5 opportunity.
Saturday Edit: Running the ball successfully is simply not how you win playoff games. In the last 8 years, excluding the 2014 Seattle Seahawks and their historically dominant defense (allowed 45 passing yards per game fewer than the second best defense and the fewest yards per game allowed by any team in the last 11 years), teams that average 150+ rushing yards per game in the regular season are 1–5 in the playoffs and 1–3 as favorites. The only win was the Ravens last week, who beat another team on the list. The Ravens are not a good passing team and the Bills are. This is an absolute smash play, and with only 4 games on the slate I’m going to up my play to 6 units.
NO -3 v. TB (3 Units)
Saturday Edit: Increased from 2 to 3 Units!
Under 52 (1 Unit)
The Saints match up extremely well with the Bucs. We’ve seen it twice this season and the Saints dominated both times. The Bucs have been playing better recently and have fully integrated Antonio Brown into the offense but I don’t think that changes the dynamic too much.
This entire season has been a struggle between Tom Brady and Bruce Arians over offensive style. Arians likes to take deep shots on every down and Brady prefers to orchestrate a quick-fire offense that methodically takes advantage of defensive lapses. The problem with Arians’ style is that it is inevitably inconsistent, particularly when the defensive line can pressure the quarterback. Against Atlanta in Week 15, the Bucs spotted the Falcons a 17 point lead because their deep passing game wasn’t working, then turned to shorter passes in a big comeback. I thought they would turn the corner offensively after that game, but they haven’t. The only reason they look like they’ve figured it out is because they’ve played the Vikings, Falcons twice, Lions, and Washington in the last five weeks. The Washington result is surprising, but the defensive line did not get to Brady and the secondary really struggled. I think the Saints will get to Brady and they actually have the talent on the back end to stop Brady from being successful down the field. In short, the Bucs are going to struggle to score consistently here and may settle for field goals.
On the other side, Brees is a master at taking advantage of any defensive weakness. The Bucs have been weaker defensively ever since they lost Vita Vea, so the Saints should be able to move the ball. I like them to win and cover. And I think they’ll take their time on their drives to keep Brady out of rhythm, meaning this Total of 52 is too high.
Saturday Edit: I can’t believe people are still betting Tampa Bay at +3. I’m adding a unit to the Saints here.
CLE +10 @ KC (2 Units)
This is an artificial line and a great example of how sports books establish game lines. A lot of people frame game lines as “the expected point differential between two teams.” But that’s not the purpose of a line. Rather, it’s the line that will ensure relatively balanced action on each side. You have to pay a tax to bet on Kansas City because everybody wants to put their money on Mahomes (rightfully so). In addition, if they made this line -8.5 or lower, everybody would tease the number down and take KC to win by 3 or more as part of a teaser. That would be bad for the books, because the Chiefs will almost certainly win this game. So we get an artificial 10-point line when this should really be 7 or so. I’ll take it.
The Chiefs haven’t covered a 10 point spread since Week 8 against the Jets. Their offensive line has been a little patchwork this season and they haven’t been able to run consistently. So when they build a lead they are susceptible to backdoor scores. In addition, the blueprint for trying to beat Kansas City comes down to three things: (1) run the ball successfully, (2) score touchdowns instead of field goals, and (3) get pressure on Mahomes. I think the Browns can do all three of those and I believe in Kevin Stefanksi after what I’ve seen this season. The Chiefs are going to win this game, but the Browns are the kind of team that can definitely make it interesting.
LAR +6.5 @ GB (1 Units)
Saturday Edit: Increased from 0 to 1 Unit!
O 45.5 (1 Unit)
This is the hardest game of the weekend to predict and I think it has a wide range of outcomes. I’m not going to bet it. The key question here is whether the Rams’ defensive line with a questionable Aaron Donald can consistently pressure Rodgers. If they can, the Rams could win this game outright. If they can’t, they don’t stand a chance at keeping up. I don’t know the answer to that question, so I can’t bet it. But if I had to pick a side I’d lean towards taking the points with the Rams, who have a Super Bowl caliber defense when healthy.
Either way, I do think this Total is a bit low, given the explosiveness of the Packers’ offense and the fact that the Rams can score when given the opportunity (including defensively, as we saw last week). The only reason Packers games have been remotely low scoring this season is because they take so long on their drives. I don’t think they have that luxury here, and will need to score on splash plays. I can see this game going Over 45.5.
Saturday Edit: I’m going to go ahead and put a unit on the Rams. Aaron Donald is fully healthy by all accounts, and I think he and this defensive line will likely take advantage of the Bakhtiari injury. On the other side, I think Cam Akers will be effective enough to keep this one close.
Bonus Bets
These aren’t official plays, but there are a few other bets I like this weekend that I’ll sprinkle some money on. They’ll either be plays for less than 1 unit or (more likely) part of a parlay. Last week I did really well on random bets so I thought I’d memorialize them this time:
CLE Team Total O 23.5 (-107)
Aaron Jones to score TD (-106)
Lamar Jackson O 196.5 yards passing (-112)
Tom Brady U 305.5 yards passing (-112)
Allen Lazard O 38.5 yards receiving (-112)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling O 23.5 yards receiving (-112)
Alvin Kamara O 35.5 yards receiving (-112)
Saturday Additions:
BUF -6.5, NO -6.5 (+700)
LAR, BUF, KC, NO money line parlay (+1118)
Teaser: KC +0, BUF +7.5, NO/TB U 62 (-115)
Lamar Jackson U 74.5 yards rushing (+124)
Mike Evans U 63.5 yards receiving (-112)
